For all you CPG and food companies in the audience (not to mention manufacturers), it should be no surprise that many producers are beginning to pass along the impacts of commodity price inflation, longer lead-times and in certain cases, additional supply constraints in their products. This recent CNBC story on Walmart says that, according to MKM Partners, prices at the retail giant have climbed .6% in the past two months which suggests, if the current rate of inflation holds, “prices would be close to four percent higher a year from now, double the Fed’s mandate.” CNBC quotes the MKM analyst who authored the research note, noting that the “price survey shows a small, but meaningful increase on an 86-item grocery basket.” And we all know if Walmart is raising prices — versus rolling them back to get consumers in the big box doors — something inflationary must be afoot.
In recent discussions with procurement executives and the consultants they work with, Spend Matters has observed that commodity price volatility — limited but not included to inflationary pressures — is, perhaps, the most pressing concern and focus at the moment. Yet many feel at least partially powerless to tackle the area owing to the difficulty of passing along price increases to customers in an environment where suppliers are exercising greater pricing power than before, refusing to commit to anything much longer than a spot-market price commitment in many cases for underlying materials…
And this is why we don’t include food in core inflation: http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2010/11/what-role-for-commodities.html
“commodity indices are typically 10 to 15 times more volatile than inflation.”
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