In September 2008 I wrote this:
Don’t you love how the proponents are telling us how much the ticket will cost even though this thing is two decades away from being completed, should the voters be duped into passing this measure. Sure, let’s add another $50 billion in debt that has a payoff price tag of $100 billion to the State’s already current liabilities of $100 billion (which will cost taxpayers $200 billion to pay off).
[From California’s High Speed Pipe Dream | Venture Chronicles]
At the time I received a number of emails saying I was wrong (with varying intensity) yet today I read a report on a new business plan by the High Speed Rail Authority that says:
The average ticket on the bullet train from San Francisco to Los Angeles is now estimated to cost about $105, or 83 percent of comparable airfare. Last year, the state said prices would be set at 50 percent of comparable airfare and predicted a ticket from San Francisco to Los Angeles would cost $55.
As a result of the higher fares, state officials now think the service will attract 41 million annual riders by 2035, down from last year’s prediction of 55 million passengers by 2030.
Finally, the cost of the project — recently pegged at $33.6 billion in 2008 dollars — is now estimated at $42.6 billion in time-of-construction dollars.
By the way, Southwest and Virgin America are both flying to LA for $59 each way… which makes the high speed rail ticket price somewhat of a dubious value.
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I would pay twice what it costs to fly now, the airlines know this. That is why the airlines are working very hard trying to stop the train that has left the station. I would very gladly avoid the cattle treatment at any airport if I am traveling less than 1000 miles. For a two hr flight it takes about 6 hrs to drive to the airport, pay the high parking costs, stay in line at security checks, fly like sardines, get stuck in the tarmac, wait for your lost luggage, pay a taxi to get you downtown where you are going. I would like to avoid most of that, even if I pay twice as much. Now the flight costs is the least of my expenses when I fly. So stop pushing the airlines as a viable future,
Imagine how efficient airports and regional air travel would be if we directed the $50+ billion high speed rail will cost to remaking our air travel infrastructure? How about building out mass transit to connect to airports… SFO finally has BART but if you live on the Peninsula like I do it is not an option.
The is not viable in California because the passenger numbers required to make it financially viable are impossible, and it is nothing but cynicism on the part of Sacramento in that they know it. They are projecting annual passenger traffic that exceeds what the entire Amtrak system carries annually in the U.S., including the very busy northeast corridor. How is that possible? It’s not, but career politicians understand that once something is built it will have to be supported even if taxpayers are milked in the process.
You can dream about paying 2x what it costs to travel on this white elephant but in the end you will probably pay closer to 5x when taxes and actual passenger fees are taken into account. Ordinarily I would say “hey it’s your bed so you lie in it” but the problem here is that the zeal for this financial disaster on rails among the minority (which is what it is because when the polls include questions about the financial costs the support plummets) obscures the fact that you are taking the rest of us down with you. I have to pay for this system… my children and grandchildren will be paying for it… and the promised benefits are pure fantasy.
This system won’t be as fast as proponents say, it will cost far more than has been projected and debt service costs are rarely, if ever talked about, and for passengers the ticket prices will far exceed any rational persons view of what is fair. Good luck with that.